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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018
The remaining deep convection associated with Fabio has dissipated
overnight and the system now consists of a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds. Although the convection has waned, a 0518 UTC
ASCAT pass indicated a large area of 30-35 kt winds primarily over
the northern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory. The cyclone will be moving over
SSTs below 20C very soon and into a more stable environment. As a
result, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and
the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and
continue to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The global
models indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough
of low pressure in a little more than 3 days, and this is reflected
in the NHC forecast.
The ASCAT pass suggests that Fabio has moved more westward than
west-northwestward overnight, but a general west-northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so. As the remnant low
weakens it should turn more toward the west before dissipation
occurs. The new NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous
official forecast, and is close to the various consensus aids.
Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next day or so.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 21.5N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 22.3N 130.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 23.0N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 23.6N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/0600Z 24.0N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/0600Z 25.0N 140.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Brown
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