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Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
200 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018

The remaining deep convection associated with Fabio has dissipated
overnight and the system now consists of a swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds.  Although the convection has waned, a 0518 UTC
ASCAT pass indicated a large area of 30-35 kt winds primarily over
the northern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity
remains 35 kt for this advisory.  The cyclone will be moving over
SSTs below 20C very soon and into a more stable environment.  As a
result, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and
the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and
continue to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The global
models indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough
of low pressure in a little more than 3 days, and this is reflected
in the NHC forecast.

The ASCAT pass suggests that Fabio has moved more westward than
west-northwestward overnight, but a general west-northwestward
motion is anticipated over the next day or so.  As the remnant low
weakens it should turn more toward the west before dissipation
occurs. The new NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous
official forecast, and is close to the various consensus aids.

Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
Peninsula for the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 21.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 22.3N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 23.0N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z 23.6N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z 24.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  09/0600Z 25.0N 140.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

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