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TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016
900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016

Organized deep convection has developed closer to the center of the
low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southwest of
the southwestern coast of Mexico since this afternoon.  On this
basis, the system is being designated as a tropical storm with 35
kt winds, in agreement with a satellite classification of T2.5 from
TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.  Even though Tina is over 30 deg C
waters, a large mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward
into the eastern Pacific from the central United States is imparting
around 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone.  This
shear is forecast to increase further during the next 24 hours when
a piece of the trough amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, and this
should cause Tina to degenerate into a remnant low.  The NHC
intensity forecast is consistent with the statistical-dynamical
guidance and shows dissipation by 48 hours.

The initial motion estimate is 350/03.  In the very short term,
Tina should continue to move generally northward, or possibly
even erratically toward the current convective burst, in a deep
layer of south-southwesterly flow.  Within about 12 hours, the shear
is forecast to be extremely strong and result in a decoupling of the
cyclone.  Once this occurs, Tina should turn west-northwestward and
westward into the low-level flow around the eastern Pacific
subtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast track is a little to the right
of all of the guidance through 12 hours and then merges with the
multi-model consensus until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0300Z 18.5N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 18.9N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  15/1200Z 19.0N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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