ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212016 900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016 Organized deep convection has developed closer to the center of the low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico since this afternoon. On this basis, the system is being designated as a tropical storm with 35 kt winds, in agreement with a satellite classification of T2.5 from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data. Even though Tina is over 30 deg C waters, a large mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward into the eastern Pacific from the central United States is imparting around 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. This shear is forecast to increase further during the next 24 hours when a piece of the trough amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, and this should cause Tina to degenerate into a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the statistical-dynamical guidance and shows dissipation by 48 hours. The initial motion estimate is 350/03. In the very short term, Tina should continue to move generally northward, or possibly even erratically toward the current convective burst, in a deep layer of south-southwesterly flow. Within about 12 hours, the shear is forecast to be extremely strong and result in a decoupling of the cyclone. Once this occurs, Tina should turn west-northwestward and westward into the low-level flow around the eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast track is a little to the right of all of the guidance through 12 hours and then merges with the multi-model consensus until dissipation. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 18.5N 107.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 18.9N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 19.0N 109.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain NNNN
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