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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015
The depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster
of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around
the outer circulation. An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that
the center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which
would place it a little south of previous position estimates and
open the possibility that the center recently reformed. An
expansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the
cyclone. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago,
so the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt.
It is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying
in a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist
mid-troposphere, and very warm waters. Perhaps the structure of the
circulation has been a limiting factor. Regardless, global models
continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin within a few days. The statistical and
dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the
statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the
cyclone's not intensifying yet. The official intensity forecast
continues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the
multi-model consensus.
The initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due
west or 265/14. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally
westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during
the next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper-
level trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to
weaken. A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should
cause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter
with a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an
even more poleward track by 96 hours. The track guidance has
shifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster,
and the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the
right-side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 9.7N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 9.6N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 9.6N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 9.6N 130.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 9.9N 132.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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