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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015

The depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster
of deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around
the outer circulation.  An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that
the center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which
would place it a little south of previous position estimates and
open the possibility that the center recently reformed.  An
expansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the
cyclone.  Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago,
so the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt.

It is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying
in a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist
mid-troposphere, and very warm waters.  Perhaps the structure of the
circulation has been a limiting factor.  Regardless, global models
continue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the
eastern Pacific basin within a few days.  The statistical and
dynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the
statistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the
cyclone's not intensifying yet.  The official intensity forecast
continues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the
multi-model consensus.

The initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due
west or 265/14.  The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally
westward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during
the next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper-
level trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to
weaken.  A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should
cause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter
with a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an
even more poleward track by 96 hours.  The track guidance has
shifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster,
and the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the
right-side of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z  9.7N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  17/0000Z  9.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  17/1200Z  9.6N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  18/0000Z  9.6N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  18/1200Z  9.9N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W   85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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