ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015
200 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015
Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory
and is now sheared more than 75 n mi northwest of the center, barely
enough to produce a satellite classification of T1.5/25 kt, which
is the intensity used for this advisory.
The initial motion estimate is 310/16 kt. There is no change to
the previous forecast track or reasoning. The model guidance
remains in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving northwestward
to west-northwestward through the 72-hour forecast cycle. The
official track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory
and is similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCE and GFEX
through 24 hours, and then lies close to the GFEX solution after
that.
The depression is now over sub-24 deg C sea-surface temperatures,
which means that it is not long for this world. The cyclone is
forecast to steadily move over colder ocean temperatures and into
a drier and more stable air mass, which should result in further
erosion of the convective cloud pattern. Therefore, the cyclone is
expected to become a remnant low pressure system within the next 12
hours, and dissipate by 96 hours as the system spins down over 22
deg C SSTs. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 23.1N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 24.4N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/1800Z 25.8N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 19/0600Z 26.9N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 27.9N 130.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 29.8N 132.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Stewart
NNNN