ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112015 200 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015 Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory and is now sheared more than 75 n mi northwest of the center, barely enough to produce a satellite classification of T1.5/25 kt, which is the intensity used for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 310/16 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving northwestward to west-northwestward through the 72-hour forecast cycle. The official track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and is similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCE and GFEX through 24 hours, and then lies close to the GFEX solution after that. The depression is now over sub-24 deg C sea-surface temperatures, which means that it is not long for this world. The cyclone is forecast to steadily move over colder ocean temperatures and into a drier and more stable air mass, which should result in further erosion of the convective cloud pattern. Therefore, the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low pressure system within the next 12 hours, and dissipate by 96 hours as the system spins down over 22 deg C SSTs. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the consensus model IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 23.1N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 24.4N 124.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1800Z 25.8N 127.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0600Z 26.9N 129.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 27.9N 130.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z 29.8N 132.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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