Tropical Storm DOUGLAS
ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014
Douglas may well have weakened to a tropical depression since the
time of an overnight ASCAT pass, given that deep convection
associated with the storm has shrunk in size and become displaced
well southeast of the center. However, we'll hold Douglas as a
tropical storm a while longer pending a more definitive indication
of weakening. With some northwesterly shear and a forecast track
that takes Douglas over even cooler waters, the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low soon. The NHC intensity forecast is
the same as the previous one and shows remnant low status within 24
hours.
The initial motion is 310/05. A building low- to mid-level ridge
over the western United States should steer the storm northwestward
and then west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed until
dissipation in about 72 hours. This is in agreement with the latest
model guidance and just a bit slower than the multi-model consensus.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/1500Z 21.6N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.1N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 23.8N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 24.6N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 25.9N 125.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
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