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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas may well have weakened to a tropical depression since the
time of an overnight ASCAT pass, given that deep convection
associated with the storm has shrunk in size and become displaced
well southeast of the center.  However, we'll hold Douglas as a
tropical storm a while longer pending a more definitive indication
of weakening. With some northwesterly shear and a forecast track
that takes Douglas over even cooler waters, the cyclone should
degenerate into a remnant low soon.  The NHC intensity forecast is
the same as the previous one and shows remnant low status within 24
hours.

The initial motion is 310/05. A building low- to mid-level ridge
over the western United States should steer the storm northwestward
and then west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed until
dissipation in about 72 hours.  This is in agreement with the latest
model guidance and just a bit slower than the multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 21.6N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 22.1N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 23.0N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 23.8N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 24.6N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

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