Hurricane GIL

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HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013
 
I WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 75 KNOTS GIVEN THAT THE
SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5 ON THE DVORAK
SCALE AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 70 KNOTS. 

GIL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION
IS NOW MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN EARLIER AND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE
EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS NOW BUILD THE
RIDGE EVEN FATHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN BEFORE...KEEPING GIL ON A
STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS
EVEN HINT AT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.

MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE EYE OR CENTER DIAMETER.
THIS PERHAPS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE. THE
CHANGE FOR A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER...AND THE WEAKENING
PROCESS SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.  

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 14.3N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 14.5N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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