ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013 I WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 75 KNOTS GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS. GIL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS NOW MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN EARLIER AND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS NOW BUILD THE RIDGE EVEN FATHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN BEFORE...KEEPING GIL ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN HINT AT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE EYE OR CENTER DIAMETER. THIS PERHAPS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE. THE CHANGE FOR A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER...AND THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 14.3N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 14.5N 138.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC