Tropical Depression FIVE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052012
2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 2 2 4 6 7
TROP DEPRESSION 11 15 12 11 15 12 12
TROPICAL STORM 86 75 70 61 58 54 50
HURRICANE 2 9 17 27 24 28 31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 14 22 19 22 24
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 4 4 4 5
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 1 1 2
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 60KT 65KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 11(26)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 5(21) X(21)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 1(21) X(21)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) X(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 13(33) X(33) X(33)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 36(43) X(43) X(43)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 15(48) X(48) X(48)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 36(39) 11(50) X(50) X(50)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) X(25) X(25)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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