| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Tropical Depression FIVE (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012               
2100 UTC WED AUG 01 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1       1       2       2       4       6       7
TROP DEPRESSION 11      15      12      11      15      12      12
TROPICAL STORM  86      75      70      61      58      54      50
HURRICANE        2       9      17      27      24      28      31
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        2       8      14      22      19      22      24
HUR CAT 2        X       1       2       4       4       4       5
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       1       1       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   40KT    45KT    50KT    55KT    55KT    60KT    65KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
PT GALLINAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)
 
CURACAO        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  11(17)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  18(23)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
KINGSTON       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)  11(26)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   6(22)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  24(26)   4(30)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  15(19)   1(20)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)   5(21)   X(21)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)   X(15)
SAINT THOMAS   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)   1(21)   X(21)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  14(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   X(20)   X(20)
ANTIGUA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  19(20)  13(33)   X(33)   X(33)
GUADELOUPE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GUADELOUPE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  36(43)   X(43)   X(43)
AVES           50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  31(33)  15(48)   X(48)   X(48)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
MARTINIQUE     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  36(39)  11(50)   X(50)   X(50)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   5(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAINT LUCIA    34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  27(30)   8(38)   X(38)   X(38)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SAINT VINCENT  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   7(25)   X(25)   X(25)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
SAINT VINCENT  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BARBADOS       34  X   X( X)   8( 8)  20(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
BARBADOS       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARBADOS       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GRENADA        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
PORT OF SPAIN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JUANGRIEGO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
NNNN                                                                

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:09:17 UTC