Tropical Storm IGNACIO
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TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009
200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND
QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND
SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW
REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W 40 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 30 KT
48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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