ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122009 200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:23 UTC