Hurricane ELIDA

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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008
800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008

MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR-E AT 0930Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF ELIDA
IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE
IMAGES APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THAT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW DUE WESTWARD AND A LITTLE FASTER OR 270/14.  OVERALL THE
TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...LITERALLY...SINCE THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...AND AT THE LONGER RANGES TO BE MORE
OF A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...WHICH DEPICT A MOTION
SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL PROBABLY KEEP ELIDA OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS FOR A LITTLE LONGER...AND ON A PATH MORE PARALLEL TO THE
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
DEPICTS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ONLY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IMPLIES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN
FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM...GDFL...AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE MORE
SUGGESTIVE THAT ELIDA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL
MORE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EVENTUAL DECAY
INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 17.1N 122.2W    85 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 17.2N 124.4W    75 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N 127.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 17.2N 129.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 132.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W    35 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 148.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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