ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008 MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR-E AT 0930Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF ELIDA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THAT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW DUE WESTWARD AND A LITTLE FASTER OR 270/14. OVERALL THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...LITERALLY...SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...AND AT THE LONGER RANGES TO BE MORE OF A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...WHICH DEPICT A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL PROBABLY KEEP ELIDA OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS FOR A LITTLE LONGER...AND ON A PATH MORE PARALLEL TO THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DEPICTS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ONLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IMPLIES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM...GDFL...AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT ELIDA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EVENTUAL DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 17.1N 122.2W 85 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 127.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 17.2N 129.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 132.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 148.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC