Tropical Storm JOHN

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO
LAZARO CARDENAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  97.8W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  97.8W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  97.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 14.2N  98.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N  97.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
 
NNNN