Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
 
MODERATE CONVECTION IN HECTOR IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED OVER 100 NMI FROM HECTOR'S
CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN DEFERENCE
TO THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 40 KT
UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE
AIR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6 AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HECTOR WILL
MAKE THE TURN...FINALLY...TO THE WEST AS IT DECAYS AND MOVES WITH
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 22.6N 135.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W    30 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA
 
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