ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 MODERATE CONVECTION IN HECTOR IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED OVER 100 NMI FROM HECTOR'S CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS. HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6 AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HECTOR WILL MAKE THE TURN...FINALLY...TO THE WEST AS IT DECAYS AND MOVES WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 22.6N 135.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC