Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006

HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35
KT.  DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE
TO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR.  

THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS
FINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN
INTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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