ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006 HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35 KT. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE TO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR. THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS FINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN INTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS... SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC