Tropical Storm HECTOR

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TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
 
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE
OVERPASS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK
AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...
BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40
KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W    40 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
 
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