ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006 MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC