Hurricane HECTOR

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HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006
 
HECTOR HAS GONE THROUGH A CYCLE OF WARMING THEN RE-COOLING CLOUD
TOPS AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN OPEN ON THE WEST SIDE.  THE
OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME SINCE THE LAST
ADVISORY WITH NEARLY UNCHANGED DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND
5.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED
AT 85 KT.

HECTOR ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM
WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING
AFTER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM...BARELY HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE
IN 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS.  THIS RATE
OF WEAKENING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE
CYCLONE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RATE OF WEAKENING OBSERVED
DURING HURRICANES BUD AND CARLOTTA EARLIER THIS SEASON WHEN THEY
MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE SAME VICINITY.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT TRACK WITH A
MOTION OF 290/11.  THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36
TO 48 HOURS AS HECTOR MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 145W.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CLUSTERED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE
A BIT PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING NOTED ABOVE...IT IS ASSUMED
THAT HECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY
THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 17.0N 128.0W    85 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W    80 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W    65 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W    50 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W    40 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA
 
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