ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006 HECTOR HAS GONE THROUGH A CYCLE OF WARMING THEN RE-COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN OPEN ON THE WEST SIDE. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH NEARLY UNCHANGED DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 85 KT. HECTOR ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING AFTER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM...BARELY HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS. THIS RATE OF WEAKENING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RATE OF WEAKENING OBSERVED DURING HURRICANES BUD AND CARLOTTA EARLIER THIS SEASON WHEN THEY MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE SAME VICINITY. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT TRACK WITH A MOTION OF 290/11. THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS HECTOR MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 145W. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE. WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING NOTED ABOVE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT HECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 17.0N 128.0W 85 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W 50 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC