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Tropical Storm GILMA

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TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006

AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER OF GILMA.  EASTERLY
SHEAR IS SEEMINGLY PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. 
ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A
LITTLE...THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE.  THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 35 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIPS/GFDL SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
STRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE...YET.    

GILMA IS STILL MOVING TO NORTHWEST SLOWLY.. 310/6.  GLOBAL MODELS
HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE
CYCLONE THAN EARLIER AND THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS
HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE.  THE UKMET SHOWS
THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE GFS SHOWS QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH
ACTUALLY FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE... CAUSING A MORE
WESTWARD MOTION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD
TURN TOWARD A DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES BEYOND THREE DAYS.  A COMPOSITE OF THESE THREE REASONABLE
MODEL SOLUTIONS IS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 14.8N 106.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W    40 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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