ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 AFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER OF GILMA. EASTERLY SHEAR IS SEEMINGLY PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE...THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS LITTLE INTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIPS/GFDL SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE...YET. GILMA IS STILL MOVING TO NORTHWEST SLOWLY.. 310/6. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE THAN EARLIER AND THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE. THE UKMET SHOWS THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFS SHOWS QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH ACTUALLY FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE... CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD A DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BEYOND THREE DAYS. A COMPOSITE OF THESE THREE REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 14.8N 106.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W 35 KT 120HR VT 07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC