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Tropical Depression EIGHT-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006
 
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO
BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE
IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE
INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. 

MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF
THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS
THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 
25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE
CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE
TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED
EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72
HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W    50 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART
 
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