ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082006 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006 SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W 35 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W 50 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:42 UTC