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Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
200 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006
 
EMILIA'S WEAKENING HAS...FOR THE TIME BEING...HALTED AS MORE
PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. 
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH AT
3.0 OR 45 KT.  THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 320/06.  BASED UPON
SHIP DGGV AT 06Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF EMILIA...THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WERE ANALYZED TO HAVE EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.

USUALLY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE NORTH OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS
FOUND WITH EMILIA.  HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED ON THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
GYRE...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION.  AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WEAKENING GYRE...ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EMILIA'S TRACK SHOULD 
BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER PREDICTION...BUT NOT AS
CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE GFDL MODEL IS SUGGESTING.  

WHILE THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND SSTS ARE A WARM 27C...EMILIA
IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY.  THE
STORM MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR BEFORE MOVING OVER 23C WATERS IN TWO DAYS TIME.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.
 
ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF EMILIA ARE
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THAT AREA FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 20.2N 111.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
 
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