ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006 EMILIA'S WEAKENING HAS...FOR THE TIME BEING...HALTED AS MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH AT 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 320/06. BASED UPON SHIP DGGV AT 06Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF EMILIA...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE ANALYZED TO HAVE EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY. USUALLY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS FOUND WITH EMILIA. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WEAKENING GYRE...ALONG WITH A CONTINUED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EMILIA'S TRACK SHOULD BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER PREDICTION...BUT NOT AS CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE GFDL MODEL IS SUGGESTING. WHILE THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND SSTS ARE A WARM 27C...EMILIA IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY. THE STORM MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR BEFORE MOVING OVER 23C WATERS IN TWO DAYS TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF EMILIA ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THAT AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 20.2N 111.0W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC