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Tropical Storm EMILIA

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TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006
800 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THE AMOUNT OF
DEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY DECREASES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE
CORE BANDING AND SYMMETRY...EVEN AS THE TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT BEFORE EMILIA CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOMORROW. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE COOL STABLE AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE
CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT NO LONGER SEEMS AS THOUGH
EMILIA CAN BECOME A HURRICANE.  BY LATE TOMORROW...EMILIA SHOULD
BEGIN DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...A TRACK QUITE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  WATER VAPOR WINDS AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES
SHOW A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EMILIA WHICH IS HELPING TO
NUDGE IT INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE
FORECAST TRACK...WHICH HAD TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MOTION...IS CLOSE TO
THE GFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/1200Z 20.6N 111.4W    50 KT
 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 112.7W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 114.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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