ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062006 800 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY DECREASES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE CORE BANDING AND SYMMETRY...EVEN AS THE TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING TONIGHT BEFORE EMILIA CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOMORROW. HOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE COOL STABLE AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT NO LONGER SEEMS AS THOUGH EMILIA CAN BECOME A HURRICANE. BY LATE TOMORROW...EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...A TRACK QUITE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. WATER VAPOR WINDS AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EMILIA WHICH IS HELPING TO NUDGE IT INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH HAD TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MOTION...IS CLOSE TO THE GFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 25/1200Z 20.6N 111.4W 50 KT 24HR VT 26/0000Z 22.0N 112.7W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1200Z 23.3N 114.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 27/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 28/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:41 UTC