Hurricane DANIEL
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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006
200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006
SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN
EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM
THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8.
DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME
MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS
CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.
THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE
SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST.
ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN
DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT
72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
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