ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052006 200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006 SHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN EXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM THE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES. BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8. DANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS. SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT. HOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST. ADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN DANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W 110 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W 115 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W 110 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W 100 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:40 UTC