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Tropical Storm ALETTA

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TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006
 
LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS
MORNING...AND THE EARLY SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES PROVIDE LITTLE
ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN
OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST HOUR. A RECENT 1304Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS NO WINDS
OVER 30 KT...AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 35 KT...
BASED UPON THE 1304 QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SOME
MODEST RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/02 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST HAS
BEGUN AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS
OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING A
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER...
NOGAPS...CONTINUES TO TAKE ALETTA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK
PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST. 
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/1500Z 16.0N 101.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W    40 KT
 
 
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