ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING...AND THE EARLY SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES PROVIDE LITTLE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST HOUR. A RECENT 1304Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS NO WINDS OVER 30 KT...AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THE LOW- LEVEL CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 35 KT... BASED UPON THE 1304 QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SOME MODEST RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/02 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST HAS BEGUN AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER... NOGAPS...CONTINUES TO TAKE ALETTA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/1500Z 16.0N 101.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC