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Tropical Storm NORMA

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TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005
 
THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS
NORMA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE
THE GFDL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
BLEND OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE MODELS.  BY 96 HOURS NORMA IS EXPECTED
TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.

NORMA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE
TRACK...330/3...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  NORMA IS
SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE MOVES NORMA SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE MOTION OF NORMA WILL
BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONNECTED THE CIRCULATION CENTER
REMAINS WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE
MID-LEVEL STEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND TURN
NORMA MORE TO THE WEST.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N 110.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    40 KT
 
 
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