ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005 THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS NORMA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE THE GFDL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE MODELS. BY 96 HOURS NORMA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. NORMA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE TRACK...330/3...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. NORMA IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MOVES NORMA SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE MOTION OF NORMA WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONNECTED THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE MID-LEVEL STEERING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND TURN NORMA MORE TO THE WEST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 15.6N 110.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W 50 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W 55 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W 55 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 24-Sep-2005 03:10:23 UTC