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Tropical Depression TWELVE-E

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005

ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...AND 12Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35KT FROM TAFB AND 30KT
FROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INITIATED ADVISORIES
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE ABOUT 400NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TWELVE-E. AT THIS
TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TWELVE-E OR THE DISTURBANCE TO THE
EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT AN UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION WOULD BE STEERED
TO THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS NORTHWARD FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN ONLY TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT
ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS AND NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT PACKAGE
FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.   
 
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/1500Z 12.6N 115.1W    25 KT
 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W    40 KT
 
 
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