ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005 ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND 12Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35KT FROM TAFB AND 30KT FROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 400NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TWELVE-E. AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TWELVE-E OR THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT AN UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION WOULD BE STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS NORTHWARD FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES... THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN ONLY TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS AND NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT PACKAGE FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 12.6N 115.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W 40 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 17-Sep-2005 15:40:17 UTC