Hurricane HILARY

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HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005

HILARY IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH IT IS
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION SO THAT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.0...I.E.
65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS THE
CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING 22-23 DEG C WATERS...SO A MORE RAPID
WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME THAN USUAL FOR THE
CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE CLOSE TO THE
SHIPS PREDICTION.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF HILARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT
LOW...A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
TRADEWINDS...IS EXPECTED.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 21.6N 118.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.2N 119.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W    35 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.1N 124.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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