ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005 HILARY IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION SO THAT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.0...I.E. 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. WITHIN 24 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING 22-23 DEG C WATERS...SO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME THAN USUAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS PREDICTION. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWINDS...IS EXPECTED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 21.6N 118.3W 65 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 22.2N 119.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W 35 KT 48HR VT 26/1200Z 24.1N 124.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 27/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Aug-2005 14:40:13 UTC