Hurricane BETA

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HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005
 
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE
BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING.  THE LANDFALL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK
NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER
INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24
HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY
EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND
PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
BASIN. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6.  BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/1500Z 12.7N  83.8W    80 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N  84.7W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/1200Z 12.2N  86.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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