ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE BETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING. THE LANDFALL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK NUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24 HOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND PASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6. BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. EVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 12.7N 83.8W 80 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 31/0000Z 12.5N 84.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/1200Z 12.2N 86.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Oct-2005 14:40:14 UTC