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Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004
 
JAVIER IS A SMALL HURRICANE...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING A WARM SPOT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES IN A CDO PATTERN. A CONFIRMATION OF THE SIZE WAS
RECEIVED FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1400Z AND WAS USED TO REDUCE THE
WIND RADII OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER IS A BIT SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE POSITION
ESTIMATES.  T-NUMBERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND
THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT BETWEEN THE T/CI NUMBERS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT SAME AS PREVIOUS...320/6...
WITH NO SIGN YET OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LIKELY TO ERODE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAVIER. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE
COMPUTER MODELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UKMET TURNING THE CYCLONE
NORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER THE UKMET HAS HAD A BIT OF A NORTHWARD BIAS WITH JAVIER AND
OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A WEAKER CYCLONE
APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE
RAPID DIMINSHMENT OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING
HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/2100Z 22.1N 112.7W    90 KT
 12HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 113.4W    80 KT
 24HR VT     18/1800Z 24.6N 114.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/0600Z 27.0N 114.1W    50 KT...NEAR BAJA COASTLINE
 48HR VT     19/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     20/1800Z 37.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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