ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004 JAVIER IS A SMALL HURRICANE...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING A WARM SPOT ON SATELLITE PICTURES IN A CDO PATTERN. A CONFIRMATION OF THE SIZE WAS RECEIVED FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1400Z AND WAS USED TO REDUCE THE WIND RADII OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A BIT SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. T-NUMBERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT BETWEEN THE T/CI NUMBERS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT SAME AS PREVIOUS...320/6... WITH NO SIGN YET OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LIKELY TO ERODE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF JAVIER. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE COMPUTER MODELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UKMET TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THE UKMET HAS HAD A BIT OF A NORTHWARD BIAS WITH JAVIER AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A WEAKER CYCLONE APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE RAPID DIMINSHMENT OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 22.1N 112.7W 90 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 23.0N 113.4W 80 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 24.6N 114.1W 65 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 27.0N 114.1W 50 KT...NEAR BAJA COASTLINE 48HR VT 19/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 37.0N 112.5W 20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 20:35:00 UTC