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Tropical Storm HILDA

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TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003
 
HILDA IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. 
VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN
THOUGHT EARLIER...AND SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION.  THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA AND A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL VISIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CONVECTION.  IF THAT SWIRL TURNS OUT TO BE ALL THERE IS THEN
A FURTHER NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE REQUIRED LATER.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION...TO 43 KT IN 36 HOURS...UNDER LIGHT
SHEAR AND SSTS NEAR 27C...ALTHOUGH NO OTHER GUIDANCE DOES SO.  THE
SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THIS CYCLONE. 
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HILDA SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS
STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

HILDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
THAT WILL PROVIDE A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...ALTHOUGH THE
MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY MAY BE A RESPONSE TO THE FLOW
SURROUNDING GUILLERMO.  HILDA IS NOT GAINING GROUND ON
GUILLERMO...SO I DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE TWO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND
IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/2100Z 16.0N 118.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.6N 119.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.3N 124.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 126.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 135.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W    30 KT
 
 
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